High apple yields are estimated in EU countries, which will increase competition on foreign markets. And what is the global situation like?

The drought had a negative impact on apple yields in Western Europe. According to the German statistics office, apple harvests in Germany (the largest EU apple recipient from Poland) may amount to 934.6 thousand tonnes, i.e. 55 thousand tonnes less than expected in August 2018, but 56% more y/y. The harvest in France will be lower than expected, although still high (1.48 million tonnes, +3.7% y/y).

Despite a marked increase in production in the EU, a lower apple harvest in China (-30%) due to the frost in 2018 will cause global apple production to fall. China is the world's largest producer and exporter of apples. Despite the increasing globalisation of the apple market, the impact of global change is only partial. Due to varietal diversity and consumer preferences as well as difficult long-distance transport, local conditions have a stronger influence on apple prices.

However, China is also the world's largest producer of concentrated apple juice, which is why the decrease in harvest in this country may mean a decrease in its production, which creates space for increasing the export of apple concentrate from Poland. Changes in the harvest of the largest producers will cause that the world's apple production may decrease by about 11% y/y.